Science & Light

Joanie July 9th, 2008

10 THINGS YOU CAN LIKE ABOUT $4 GAS
By Amanda Ripley
Time

http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1819594_1819592,0
0.html

The world had long assumed that Americans were just unrepentant energy pigs.
If gas prices went up, well, we kept our Explorers aimed at the horizon, and
little changed. We truthfully didn’t have lots of options. Unlike Europeans,
we didn’t have jobs we could bike to or convenient public transit. Gasoline
prices never stayed high enough long enough to force those kinds of shifts
in how we lived.

Now here we are. Gas prices are near $4 per gal., as no one needs to tell
you, and they are likely to stay that way. Most of us still don’t have the
alternatives we need to adapt with grace, which means that many will adapt
just by suffering. We will run out of gas on I-80, ease our minivans over to
the shoulder and tell the kids everything is O.K. We’ll fall behind on Visa
bills to pay for gas so we can buy food made ever more expensive by energy
costs.

But it’s also true that Americans are finding options where there seemed to
be none. They’re ready to change — and waiting for their infrastructure to
catch up. They are driving to commuter-rail lines only to find there are no
parking spots left. They are running fewer errands and dumping their SUVs.
Public-transit use is at a 50-year high. Gas purchases are down 2% to 3%.
And all those changes bring secondary, hard-earned benefits.

“You suddenly are reminded how the economy works,” says Eric Roston, author
of a new book about energy, The Carbon Age. “Nobody wants high prices for
oil. But there’s also no faster mechanism to change behavior.” The suffering
will go on. But the story, like any good tragedy, is not without redemption.

…………..

1. GLOBALIZED JOBS RETURN HOME
By Amanda Ripley
With reporting by Maya Curry

The world suddenly seems big again. A family of four can’t fly cross-country
for much less than $2,000. The cost of shipping a standard 40-ft. (12 m)
container of couches from Shanghai to New Jersey has tripled since 2000.
Trucking carrots from Mexico to Georgia makes less and less economic sense.

When John Smith started a high-end furniture company in Washington in 2003,
he couldn’t make everything in the U.S. and stay competitive. So his
company, Willem Smith, started operations in Vietnam and Ecuador. He found
himself visiting factories 11 time zones away from his four small daughters.

By last year, the cost of making and importing one of his favorite pieces,
the Caballero chair, was ballooning. He was shipping Italian leather to
Vietnam and then shipping the large chair back to the States. There were
other problems too, like inflation in Vietnam. So last January, Willem Smith
“repatriated” the Caballero to Hickory, N.C. That shift helps contain
shipping costs and has other perks. “People are happy to buy American,”
Smith says. “And it felt kind of nice to bring this one home.”

In more industries, such as steel, lawn-mower batteries and upscale
furniture, doing business in the U.S. is starting to look slightly more
feasible.

………….

2. SPRAWL STALLS
By Amanda Ripley
With reporting by Maya Curry

Across the country, real estate agents are reporting that many home buyers
are looking to move closer to cities. Gas prices are shaping their
decisions. A May study that examined housing values in five cities found
prices had fared worse in more-distant neighborhoods. “The collapse of
America’s housing bubble — and its reverberations in financial markets –
has obscured a tectonic shift in housing demand,” wrote economist Joe
Cortright in the study, sponsored by CEOs for Cities, a nonprofit group that
promotes cities. “Housing in cities and neighborhoods that require lengthy
commutes and provide few transportation alternatives to the private vehicle
are falling in value more precipitously than in more central, compact and
accessible places.”

………….

3. FOUR-DAY WORKWEEKS
By Amanda Ripley
With reporting by Maya Curry

Companies, colleges and governments are moving to four-day weeks. Brevard
Community College in Cocoa, Fla., went to four days for the 2007 summer
session and saved $268,000 in energy costs. There were unforeseen benefits
too. Over the year, sick leave fell 50%, and turnover among the 1,500-person
staff dropped 44%. “We thought the energy savings would be a plus. But the
reaction was about what it meant to people’s family lives and their ability
to take care of themselves,” says college president Jim Drake. Brevard is
doing four-day weeks again this summer and may make the change year-round.

………….

4. LESS POLLUTION
By Amanda Ripley
With reporting by Maya Curry

As people consume less fuel in America, vehicle emissions should drop. Less
pollution means bluer skies and longer lives — and the potential to slow
global warming, albeit slightly. Lower energy demand means the air will
contain fewer toxic agents, like particle pollution, which can get deep into
your lungs and cause serious health problems. Bottom line? About 2,220 lives
have already been saved over the past year because of higher gas prices and
less pollution, according to an estimate calculated for TIME by J. Paul
Leigh, a University of California at Davis health-economics professor who
co-wrote a study on the topic in the March 2008 Journal of Occupational and
Environmental Medicine. If prices remain high, we can expect some 2,000
people to avoid dying from pollution in the next 12 months.

………….

5. MORE FRUGALITY
By Amanda Ripley
With reporting by Maya Curry

Trucking companies are using software to help identify optimal places for
drivers to refuel and the most efficient delivery routes. Waste haulers are
checking tire pressure twice a day instead of every couple of days. We’re
all wasting less. Vespa scooter sales increased 106% in May compared with
the same time last year; Ford SUV sales dropped 55% in June. Columbia, Md.,
resident Glenn Conrad, 58, bought a Honda Insight a few years ago and, like
many so-called hypermilers, became obsessed with his miles-per-gallon gauge.
“That thing is really addictive,” he says. Although a police officer
recently gave him a warning for going too slowly, he is undeterred. “If I
roll both of my windows up,” he says, “I instantly get about two more miles
per gallon.”

………….

6. FEWER TRAFFIC DEATHS
By Amanda Ripley
With reporting by Maya Curry

Every year, about 40,000 people die in traffic accidents in the U.S. If you
are age 5 through 34, you are more likely to die this way than any other
way. Ordinary things we do — or don’t do — have extraordinary
consequences. We know that higher gas prices cause many of us to slow down
and drive less — which means fewer people die. Early research into 2006
accident data suggests that many lives have already been spared. If gas
remains at $4 per gal. for a year or more, expect as many as 1,000 fewer
fatalities a month, according to professor Michael Morrisey at the
University of Alabama at Birmingham and associate professor David Grabowski
at Harvard Medical School, who calculated that estimate for TIME. That means
annual deaths could be cut by almost one-third — a public-health triumph.

………….

7. CHEAPER INSURANCE
By Amanda Ripley
With reporting by Maya Curry

If you are driving less, you could qualify for lower car-insurance rates.
For example, if you have stopped driving to work, your classification has
changed to “pleasure driver,” and you could save 10% to 15% (or $94 to $142
on an average premium), according to the Consumer Federation of America. So
if you’re parked more, call your insurer.

………….

8. LESS TRAFFIC
By Amanda Ripley
With reporting by Maya Curry

Travel on all roads dropped 2.1% in the first four months of 2008, according
to the Federal Highway Administration. Wherever people can take public
transit, they are doing so. Even before the biggest gas-price hikes, a
Congressional Budget Office study of California freeways from 2003 to 2006
showed that the number of freeway trips went down 0.7% for every 50-cent
increase in gas prices — but only in areas near public transit. Cities are
struggling to keep up. BART, the San Francisco Bay Area rail system, removed
seats to open up more standing room. In Boston, where turnpike use declined
by 600,000 cars in May, officials are pleading with public-transit
passengers to travel at nonpeak times.

………….

9. MORE COPS ON THE BEAT
By Amanda Ripley
With reporting by Maya Curry

Across the country, police bike and foot patrols are up, and cops are being
told to cut down on idling their cruisers — which is sort of like telling a
teenager to stop using his cell phone. Georgia state police have been told
to cut driving time 25%. In Shelby, N.C., police officers have been ordered
to park their cars for 15 min. every two hours and to stop taking patrol
cars out for lunch. In May the city government’s fuel consumption decreased.
The longer-term effects may include better community relations — and
slimmer police.

………….

10. LESS OBESITY
By Amanda Ripley
With reporting by Maya Curry

People walk more, bike more and eat out less when gas is pricey. A permanent
$1 hike in prices may cut obesity 10%, saving thousands of lives and
billions of dollars a year, estimates Charles Courtemanche, an assistant
professor of economics at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro. At
Orange Cycle, the largest bike store in Orlando, Fla., sales of upright
urban bikes from March to June rose 57% compared with the same period last
year. The shop was around for the 1970s gas crisis too, but this feels
different, says co-owner Deena Breed. “I don’t think it’s just gas,” she
says. “It has to do with weight, exercise, community — a general sense of
not being so wasteful.”

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